Hot Takes for the AI Investor

FUTURE

Over the last months, I’ve developed very strong opinions on the future of labor, geopolitics, markets, and of AI itself.

And I’m just going to dump it all on you. Four big topics will be addressed today:

The geopolitical maneuver the US is clearly preparing between AI, crypto, and the dollar

How AI could cause the downfall of the “best business model in history”, search

A thorough analysis of AI impact on businesses and what the real moat will be,

And a simple framework, the knowledge-to-action ratio, to measure AI exposure for every job.

This is not me suggesting stock picks; this is for people who want to understand where AI is going, to make savvy investment decisions, or for those who simply want to learn key insights you’ll hardly read anywhere else.

Let’s dive in.

This century’s Petrodollar

In 1971, the US abandoned the gold standard (Nixon Shock).

From then on, the dollar was no longer backed by gold, raising concerns about its global reserve currency status. To stabilize demand for the dollar, the US struck a deal with Saudi Arabia in 1974: in exchange for military protection and arms, Saudi Arabia (and eventually other OPEC nations) agreed to price all oil exports exclusively in US dollars.

In simple terms, this meant any country wanting to buy oil had to hold and trade in dollars. As oil was fundamental (and pretty much still is) to most, if not all, nations, it created consistent global demand for the currency, hence the rise of the ‘petrodollar’.

The appetite for US dollars has cemented the US’s dominance in the world, and still does. Yet, oil, despite its strong importance to this day, is seeing a steady decline in interest as the world moves to new technologies.

Thus, the US dollar needs a new peg.

And the answer is AI, but how? Well, using a mixture of two things: crypto and compute. If this sounds too weird, trust me, it will make sense in a minute.

AI Compute, The Ultimate Commodity

In the Trump Administration, David Sacks holds the highest authority in both AI and Crypto. Well, I believe the fact that both fall under the same umbrella is no coincidence.

If AI has to be the substitute to the petrodollar, for that to be, that would mean that most of ‘AI units’, people buying AI in some shape or form, are paid in dollars.

But what does it mean to ‘buy AI’?

For most people, the primary interaction will be with AI products or services, which may originate from various sources and be paid for in multiple currencies. The US can’t stop people from buying an Austrian AI agent for customer support if they are living in, say, France, using euros.

But if there’s one thing in common across all AI products, it is that they need compute to work. And here’s where the US should aim to guarantee its dominance.

The logic is clear. If you own most of the…

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